In the high-stakes standoff with the United States, China is exercising a policy of strategic patience. After delivering a firm and unambiguous warning of retaliation, Beijing has chosen to wait and see if Washington will actually follow through on its threat of 100% tariffs, effectively placing the ball back in President Trump’s court.
This approach is both tactical and deliberate. By issuing a strong statement that it is “not afraid” of a trade war and will take “resolute measures,” China has established its credibility and resolve. It has made its red lines clear. But by not immediately announcing specific countermeasures, it avoids being seen as the escalator of the conflict.
This strategic pause has had a noticeable effect on some corners of the market. Bitcoin, for example, rallied 4% after its initial plunge, a move some analysts attribute to the relief that China did not instantly engage in a tit-for-tat response. This suggests that Beijing’s patience has created a sliver of hope that a full-blown conflict can still be averted.
However, this patience should not be mistaken for weakness. The promise of retaliation remains. China is likely using this time to prepare its economy for the potential shock and to formulate a response that would be maximally effective while minimizing self-harm. It is watching, waiting, and planning.
The entire global economy is now in this state of suspense, awaiting the U.S. move. Will the Trump administration interpret China’s patience as an invitation to de-escalate, or will it mistake it for hesitation and proceed with the tariffs? China has made its position clear; the next move in this dangerous game belongs to Washington.